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When we zoom out to the entire globe, it gets worse, specifically in tropical regions. Billions of people live in these potential, future hot zones. Due to the current state of the global economy, many disadvantaged people residing in these potentially deadly places may not be able to move away or adapt. We know that most mass extinctions in the fossil record have been triggered by the rapid onset of global warming due to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere.
In the past, these emissions were usually due to large, volcanic episodes which occurred over tens to hundreds of thousands of years. On a geological timescale, these changes occurred in the blink of an eye, and this is why they were so costly. The human-caused climate change that is occurring today is similar; since , we have increased atmospheric CO 2 levels to the highest they have been in the last 3 to 5 million years. Even though this may be depressing, there is still hope.
There is still time to reverse the worst effects of man-made climate change, and to do so we must support conservationist efforts and transition to renewable energy. Last updated on 13 November by fhaychap. View Archives. So, yes, the last glacial retreat was a good thing for the development of agriculture. But your contention that this development took place during a time of rapidly rising temperatures and sea levels is not well supported -- and really makes no difference.
However, there is a clear difference in conditions described by Bettinger et al : Ice age climates varied at very short timescales Richerson, Boyd, and Bettinger Ice core data show that last glacial climate was highly variable on timescales of centuries to millenia In comparison, the Holocene after 11, BP has been a period of comparatively very stable climate. So it appears to have been stability that gave birth to civilization.
What we have provoked is rapid change and instability : deeper droughts, worse flooding, wilder extremes from winter to summer. Anecdotally, from a recent trip west: it is clear that the only people who will get a crop this year are those who can afford to buy lots of water. Poor farmers have abandoned their fields; buildings and other infrastructure are in decay. Everywhere you go, creekbeds and streams are dry and people are saying 'it's never been this bad. In the same light, the change in climate is putting pressure on "friendly" and "neutral" species, as well as a strong increase is invasive and pest species, which does not bode well for our species even in the short term.
It certainly doesn't bode well in terms of comfort - longer term, it won't sit well for meeting the basic needs of all of society as species relied upon for necessities are pushed out by species regarded as pests. Mikemcc at AM on 22 December, The link to Univ of Texas climate change impact article marked by the text "timing of breeding, migration, flowering, and so on" is broken.
It looks like they've moved the article. So why should I believe anything else you tell me if you so egregioulsy misrepresent such easily available "facts"? It doesn't make the claim you say it makes. It compares a potential with the "largely ice-free world" of about 35mya. It may even be the one you are referring to! That reconstruction indeed shows that there are deep ocean temps in the Eocene era that were substantially greater than today, but those were 55 million years ago.
It also shows that the last time temps were consistently 4C higher than current was just prior to the Antarctic glaciation 34 mya. There may have some periods that were a touch more than 4C warmer in the following 10 million years, but that was still 24 million years ago.
The point of this post is that we are likely to recapitule tens of millions of years of climate history in the span of a century or two. If you have a reconstruction that says otherwise, link to it. Otherwise we have no idea what you're specifically talking about, and it is therefore impossible to clarify things. The most relevant, prominent image was this one originally from wikipedia :.
The data is from dO18 from foraminafora shells on the ocean floor. Consequently dO18 records do not linearly equate to temperature records between different periods with very different ratios of fresh to salt water, as when large quantities of ice are locked up in ice sheets. Hence the two different temperature scales. Indeed, it shows the data in the image above, first in an unmodified form and then adjusted for the size of ice sheets to give a direct temperature measurement Fig 3 b :.
As you can see, temperatures did not consistently exceed 4 C above mid-twentieth century values until 35 million years ago. Finally, I did see two images that showed temperatures in the 20 degree range. One showed central european temperatures only, and hence was not representative of global temperatures.
The second was the crude graph by Scotese which is in its original form , not proxy based, but merely assigns a warm temperature for periods without glaciation, and a cool temperature for periods with extensive glaciation.
It also showed global average temperatures rather than the global temperature anomaly, and therefore showed at most a 7 C increase over modern temperatures at any time in the tertiary. I do not know what figure Scott Sinnock was basing his claims on, but they are not warranted by the limited evidence he provides. We are 14 years into the 21st century. What is the global temp increase from till now? We are not on track 14 years into the 21st century. I question that the Earth's crust, atmosphere, and oceans as a heat sink could allow that much change in years.
I tried to see the annual fluctuation in Lake superior water temps but they only record surface temps, when avg depth is Adapting has so far been to. A house in Jupiter, Fla at The recent trend along Fla coast will bring sea water to the Jupiter Fla house doorstep in years, assuming no changes in continental plate rise or fall over years. At least Polar Bear adaptation is being relieved so far this year. Please cease and desist posting coments of this nature.
The latest SIA is Also, unlike Yogi Bear, the term polar bear is neither capitalised nor the subject of fictional commentary; at least, not on this website. In the future, please identify the comenter by name and coment by number that you are respo ding to. MA Rodger 41, the current day sea ice extent according to Charctic is That is Jetfuel is very careful to not tell us that the current sea ice extent is only That there is currently less ice than in the former, and current record September minimum ice years, and that the former record minimim extent ice had more ice in day than did the current record shows how pointless are the statistics jetfuel is quoting.
As jetfuel well knows if he has perused charctic, in May sea ice extent variability is at a minimum. At this time of year, there is the least difference between all years so that current values of sea ice extent provide almost no predictive value in predicing eventual September minimums. It also means that at this time of year there is a maximum ice melt for years with the maximum March extent relative to other years - and it means nothing in terms of determining how low the summer sea ice extent will be.
This repeat and greatly extended series of such posts by jetfuel were he takes data out of context and milks "skeptical" conclusions from them regardless of their actual import or lack of import. He does it so consistently, and persistently in the face of correction that he is IMO not entitled to the presumption of honest mistakes, and I am astonished that his record of misinformation, sloganeering and repetition has not yet resulted in his loosing the privilege of posting at SkS.
Returning to the topic, polar bears are adapted to hunting on ice packs. That makes them poor hunters on land, so that summer months are lean month with many polar bears near starvation by the end of summer. The most immediate threat from global warming to polar bears is from the extended duration before they can return to the ice after summer due to the more extensive summer sea ice melts.
The slightly reduced sea ice extents in March are of almost no consequence for polar bears, and also have no bearing on the critical summer sea ice extent values. CT SIA for the current date is Thus, in warmer Arctic Ocean water, from a thinner ice pack, and with ppm CO2, ice is dissapearing slower than way back when everything had warmed less. I was just noting that the ice area time lines were converging over that short time. Yes, that is a general trend for most years.
At least that part is behaving normal this year. If you wish to discuss science then do so in scientific way. If you are here to amuse yourself with outrageous arguments and trolling, then please find somewhere else for your entertainment. Further offtopic comments will be deleted.
DSL, it seems ice loss outpaces most projections. Is only getting down to 4. Multiyear ice is up from , but ice area trails for this day. That really is the most ridiculous cherry pick I have ever seen on a climate blog. A whole eight days, wow that can't possibly be just weather noise!!!
As stated above, your future posts will be carefully scrutinized by Moderators to make sure they are in full compliance with the SkS comments Policy. If they are not, they will be dealt with as appropriate by a Moderator.
Your propensity to post "look squirrel" comments tells us that you are not here to engage in meaningful discussions of climate science. In other words, you are on the cusp of losing your privilege to post comments on this website. Thanks for the pointer to the SIE data source. The same apprarent ignorance seems true for the effects of Arctic topology on the rate of ice loss - it slows up as it retreats through the Bering Straits.
Of course, there comes a point when accumulative shenanigans become statistically irrefutable. Speaking of migrations, over the past few years, there has been a increase of Canadian Geese who have taken up permanent residence in the San Francisco South Bay Area. The strange part about it is that the weather here is actually warm, not cold.
The birds used to be seen here for the winter months, now they are here all year round, hanging at public parks, golf courses, and school fields. Political, off-topic or ad hominem comments will be deleted. Comments Policy You need to be logged in to post a comment. Login via the left margin or if you're new, register here. Link to this page. The Consensus Project Website.
Settings Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed or to completely turn that feature off. Term Lookup Term:. Cambridge University Press. Can animals and plants adapt to global warming? Animals and plants can adapt [C]orals, trees, birds, mammals, and butterflies are adapting well to the routine reality of changing climate.
Mizimi at AM on 2 November, KR at AM on 17 October, Bibliovermis at AM on 18 November, Karamanski at PM on 2 February, Mikemcc at AM on 22 December, Scott Sinnock at AM on 14 May, Stephen Baines at AM on 14 May, Tom Curtis at AM on 14 May, Response: [JH] Your "look squirrel" bloging style is very tiresome and impreses no one reading this comment thread. Response: [JH] I belive that you have directed this coment to jetfuel.
Tom Curtis at AM on 24 May, Dikran Marsupial at PM on 24 May, John Hartz at AM on 25 May, Anthony at AM on 28 May, Forgot your password? Link to this page What the science says Climate Myth Kudos to Professor Barry Brook. England green lizards and brown rock lizards, both mediterranean species are now resident. An illustration of species movement as conditions allow. I see very prominent and deleterious effects on vegetation around my home in NJ and I would be very interested to learn of other observers who would be willing to compare notes.
Why is this important? Because many of the prominent and influential policy makers live on the Eastern Seaboard and maybe if they become enlightened enough to recognize the collapse of the ecosystem around their own homes, they might finally realize how urgent it is to eliminate carbon emissions. Thank you! New beginnings? Just look at much of the Middle East. Large areas were once fertile crop producing lands supporting substantial populations in cities.
Now the deserts, mostly caused by abandoning age-old water management practices, barely support an assortment of goats and lizards. McLean , W. Busse , R. Bush , C. Reed , W. Metzger , H. Richerson , D. Shulan , J. Koshiver , M. Eric Alden Smith, Robert L. Bettinger, Charles A. Casimir, Andrew L. Rindos, David , Carneiro, Robert L. Peter J. Richerson, Robert Boyd and Robert L. American Antiquity. Zhan, Q. Journal of Neuroscience. Seidenfeld, D.
Wycoff, D. Zavala and H. British Journal of Industrial Medicine. Lesley Newson and Peter J. Population and Development Review. Anuras, Jitra , Cheng, Frank H. Richerson, G. Richerson and Robert Boyd. Dlouhy, B. Robert Boyd , Peter J. Buchanan, Gordon F. The Journal of Physiology. Heath J. Carney, Peter J. Richerson, Charles R. Goldman and Robert C. Hospital Practice. Oyelese, A. Boyd, Robert , Richerson, Peter J. Thomas H. Suchanek, Peter J. Richerson, R. Zierenberg, Collin A. Eagles-Smith, Darell G.
Slotton, E. James Harner, David A. Osleger, Daniel W. Anderson, Joseph J. Cech, Jr. Geoffrey Schladow, A. Metzger, W. James , Richerson, H. Robert Boyd and Peter J. Human Ecology. Richerson, David W. Sowers, Levi P. Richard McElreath, Adrian V.
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|European darts championship 2021 betting sites||We are 14 years into the 21st century. One showed central european temperatures only, and hence was not representative richardson boyd and bettinger temp global temperatures. Please refrain from emailing if you are not familiar with this topic. Most large, natural shifts in CO 2 concentration have occurred over tens to hundreds of thousands of years or longer. Identification of the yellow skin gene reveals a hybrid origin of the domestic chicken. Time to spread your wings: a review of the avian ancient DNA field. Functional link between the hypocretin and serotonin systems in the neural control of breathing and central chemosensitivity Corcoran, Andrea E.|
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|Hack de bitcoins news||Anim Genet. Curr Top Dev Biol. McHugo, G. Response to CO2 of neurons in the rostral ventral medulla in vitro Richerson, G. In this case increased plant yield and reduced hunting opportunities, would both seem like plausible candidates for such factors. Nevertheless that which has taken place,whilst not condemning outright AGW and its proponents, is however at odds with mass media output.|
|Richardson boyd and bettinger temp||John Hartz at AM on 25 May, jetfuel: As stated above, your future posts richardson boyd and bettinger temp football betting card points carefully scrutinized by Moderators to make sure they are in full compliance with the SkS comments Policy. Today a new archeological site was aged at 14, years. Establishing neural crest identity: a gene regulatory recipe. However, with so many in the mainstream pushing the idea that exceeding to ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere dooms us, I wished to indicate that since our current needs and life styles require at least to ppm, a target zone of to or is both impossible and unreasonable. Vander LM. Ancient DNA: The quest for the best.|
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One of the most interesting aspects of the climate issue for me is the notion of good and bad. It all seems to begin with the assumption the human activity is bad. SLR is bad. Arctic ice however, is good. It remains unclear to me whether it would be good if glaciers were to advance. We seem to be more accepting of the existence of infectious bacteria as a natural variant than our own. It is nice to see the consideration of the possible good.
Unfortunately, those of us that consider the possible good in this issue will be accused of being bad,. David, your comment of ice in the Arctic being good, but maybe advancing glaciers not so much. Once again your thought on the source of huge amounts of moisture to grow the continental ice sheets.
Was the western Arctic ice free and warm for most of the last ice age? Hence, these peoples were pedestrians. The likely means of transportation was by boats on bodies of water; lakes, streams and ocean. The best ride is better than the best walk. These bodies of water contained fish and other animals mollusk, lobster crab and crayfish to provide sustenance.
The inland peoples more likely traveled inland on boats and rafts carrying their fishing traditions with them. Planting crops required staying over the winter when the fresh waters froze. Hunting likely supplemented the dried fruits, nuts and berries that could be easily kept and carried.
In the perspective of women, and in particular women who are pregnant, these are pretty fragile creatures vitamins and other nutritional deficiencies. Staying in one place, as opposed to constantly moving from one place to another, would be an attractive alternative as well as providing the socialization needed for child rearing it takes a village to raise a child.
Given the above, my best guess as to the reason for settling down in one place and having a family, was to preserve the tribe with its relatively low birth rate and for maternal survival. The only way to stay and winter was to eat through the poor growing season. To this day, when people are starving, they do eat grass, after all, some animals do it, so…. However, we only have one stomach and not 4 like cows, so people raised cows and other cellulose digesting mammals, who eat grass while people drink the milk.
The C3 and C4 grasses that have become staples, eventually were ground into powder, adding a little water, set aside sometimes allowing the natural yeast to further digest the complex sugars, baked and voila, bread.
To preserve the tribe, there was a need to stay in one place and winter. To winter successfully, people began to mimic the animals around them, and when exact mimicry would not work, find other ways to make what was handy, the grasses, to be made into long lasting and calorically dense foods.
Come on down and stay a while. Have a drink fermented grain beverage and a bite to eat. Wine, women and song. Survival at its finest. There is clearly a CO2 effect on plant mass, survival and reproduction — and may be linked to the development of agriculture. It is not — btw — a new idea.
There are a number of complicating factors. The lack of evidence of extinction in glacial periods indicates the likelihood of plant adaptation to low CO2 that is not apparent in modern variants — although there is evidence that there is sufficient genetic variability for modern plants to adapt to low CO2 over generations.
The CO2 effect is most pronounced at low CO2 levels with much less impact at higher than preindustrial levels. A theory says that the African savanna was the nursery of humanity — in which fire was an integral part of the story. It left us us with an upright posture, fine features — which facilitated language — and a big brain. The latter due to cooked food. The simultaneous development of agriculture is probably overstated as well.
Rye was cultivated in Syria from wild stands some 11, years ago, gourds were cultivated in Asia from 10, years ago and grains were grown Middle East fertile crescent some years BCE. The suggestion here is that there was a tipping point where CO2 levels were sufficient to support agriculture — and It could well be that CO2 gave cultivation an energy advantage over hunting and gathering encouraging development of the technology. An idea far from proven. There is little doubt that deserts are greening — the effect is more pronounced in water limited environments — but that is not necessarily a good thing.
If elevated CO2 causes the water use of individual leaves to drop, plants in arid environments will respond by increasing their total numbers of leaves. These changes in leaf cover can be detected by satellite, particularly in deserts and savannas where the cover is less complete than in wet locations, according to Dr Donohue.
So there are benefits that are exhaustible and far reaching — but unknown — consequences of tropic cascade. Trophic cascade is an idea illustrated nicely by the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park. The presence or absence of key species changes biodiversity, species abundance and landscapes. Changes in aquatic and marine chemistry — and in terrestrial hydrology — will change the global ecology with uncertain consequences for key species within assemblages — even if they are only on phytoplankton..
I am obviously less convinced of the upside and more troubled by the downside than many here. It seems propitious then that the continued increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is most unlikely. We have lots of coyotes on my fairly large SW Wisconsin dairy farm. Lots of moonlight yapping. I will never forget the recent November deer hunting night at the cabin we heard a wolfpack howl at the moon. They were transient, but still on my land. Wintered by the round hay bail row way out back.
Left in early spring. Helped out with the white tail deer overpopulation in those parts in the meantime. Not just the coyotes and bobcats have trail pics of both. Agriculture involves being more stationary but as cultures, not as persons. I think humanity is always, following the buffalo, and for the Indians, apparently is was more horsepower that was the route to greater wellbeing of a better nomadic lifestyle…. It seems as though there should be a conventional term for this.
It seems redundant to me— i. The better terminology as frequently used in anthropology is to follow Yehudi Cohen s adaptive strategies: foraging hunting gathering , horticulture, pastoralusm, agriculture and later, industrialism. It had an identical meaning, but in no way implied uncertainty.
It was just a Jew thing. Seems stupid. The answer would only seem to emphasize that which is being avoided. What would be a scientific, non-cultural referent to historical and geological time? But then Protagoras reminded us that humans are the measure of all things — like the inch or the centimeter since it is us who pick the metric.
I guess the earth is the center of the universe and the earth is flat and I will ruin the atmosphere by driving a car and eating gluten. My precise post definition, had you checked, was current era. You want to argue, at least get the post definitions right. Ristvan, Interesting hypothesis. Please consider Australia. Populated for 40, yrs or more but almost no evidence of sedentary agriculture across an enormous range of climates.
Exception: fishtrap related settling in western Victoria. Refer G. Even though wild or semi-domesticated plants may be an important component of a diet, until you can meet all your nutritional needs vitamins and minerals through farming, you still have to hunt and fish. So as many North American Indians found, it was easier to keep moving the tribe between temporary villages than to stay in one place.
Finding lots of abandoned villages is one reason Europeans assumed that some sort of plague or other calamity must have just struck the Indians, because Europeans would never conceive of just abandoning a settlement as a matter of routine. In Europe villages stayed occupied and defended for countless generations. Hrj, the question is why agriculture did not emerge in Australia.
Certainly there were suitable geographies on the continent. Been doing some reading cause it is a veryinteresting question. There are two irreconcilable views. One asserts that agriculture did emerge, with permanent settlements. The other majority view is that neither practice involves domestication so is not sedentary agriculture.
There are two subtheories as to why. There is more than one pH. D thesis lurking in your question. Thanks,could not agree more, warm times are good times for plants,thus man due to more CO2. Was surprised to see the year time lag for carbon dioxide to follow temperature rise. Today a new archeological site was aged at 14, years.
What warming was happening in the Arctic near the Mckenzie River delta during the last ice age? Origen of man in N. About 24, years ago after holding up in the warm, lush Berring Strait area for 9, years. Same time as continental ice sheet to 40 degrees north. Arctic needed to be ice free to allow huge percipitation to build the ice sheets.
Rocky Mountains rain shadowed area from the Pacific. Interestingly — the beginning of the evolution of Modern Agricultural over the march of modern civilization dates back to about months ago…. Reblogged this on How to s.. My primary problem here is that the hypothesis depends on ice cores providing accurate measures of past CO2 levels.
The problems with this theory are well known. I am inclined to think that CO2 levels fluctuate naturally, far more than ice cores indicate. Another problem is that the number of people in a agricultural unit was so small that it is hard to see low productivity as precluding agriculture. Agriculture requires certain knowledge and technology, which has to be discovered and invented, especially food preservation.
These might well be more important than plant productivity. See my above at pm on the 7th. From prior attempts that eventually fizzled out, we know that at least some of the knowledge and technology existed long before the main agricultural wave; in the case of the referenced paper at least 10 millennia before.
It seems at least a plausible possibility that the difference between long-term success and the prior failures, was increased plant productivity. This is consistent with the significant drop in health for early agro communities noted by lloyd56 below. Absolutely they do. But if significant external factors happen to be moving in a promotional direction, more will succeed.
In this case increased plant yield and reduced hunting opportunities, would both seem like plausible candidates for such factors. Excellent analysis of climate change and our own change from hunter gathering to agriculture. Interesting how it supports the idea that CO2 is the control knob for the climate. Not really, because climate is not a factor. Note that the recent CO2 rise helps explain the year green revolution. Good in both cases. The end of the last ice age 12K to 10K years ago was a change in climate, I.
It got warmer. The natural increase of CO2 drove that change. Modern civilization then occurred. Coherent… Supports CO2 as the control knob. Except that the rise in CO2 followed the rise in temperatures as warmer oceans outgassed it. In this case the CO2 was a positive feedback to the warming from other forcing changes, but it is precisely because CO2 has its own warming effect that it was a positive, not negative, feedback.
George Turner — true. Southern warming seas out gassed enough CO2 to cause a further warming on a global scale. See link. Jim D is correct. Great post. Once farmers settle, are they committed to staying even during bad crop years, or several bad years in a row? There is evidence of human health indicators declining with agricultural settlement.
There was a huge upside in the ability to communicate and learn. Well yes, roads, laws, ….. Dr Hans Rosling explains how average life expectancy was under 40 years of age in but had increased to 80 years of age by in the first world. And developing countries catching up fast as soon as they started to use fossil fuels. Incredible video to watch. Today a baby born in the first world has an average life expectancy of 90 years of age.
And in this next video Rosling explains how even tertiary educated people are ignorant about the human advances in the world. Just watch the first 5 minutes of this video to understand how ignorant people seem to be about our modern world. Even the chimps in the zoo beat them. Unbelievable but true. Make sure this video link starts at the beginning.
How little we know. So many records lost waiting to be found. Evolutionary wise quadrupeds have been present for at least million years. All share similar lungs, brains and vertebral structure. Thinking capacity, eyesight and hearing has been highly developed in many species. Successive ice ages may have been important in stressing humans to develop storage and farming capacities. Amazing to think that the capacity to record and transmit our past thoughts and history is what has pushed the last frontier.
More amazing the ability of plants, animals and humans to collectively genetically adapt and help each other out. Thanks for your views on this topic Rud. An interesting side note. The Museum of Man in San Diego had an exhibit about the emergence of beer in many cultures. I seem to recall that the earliest archaeological evidence was about BCE.
The point might take us to a motivator for sedentary agriculture. Inebriation and having a good time is hard to measure but the anthropological record and classical literature of a later period acknowledges those things that make the human condition bearable — from wine to beer to psychoactive substances. Of course, psychoactive substances likely preceded those associated with agriculture and tied into shamanic practices of hunter gatherers.
This takes us away from CO2, but the leading edges of social and technological were likely spurred by interests beyond material subsistence. The spiritual world, magic and dealing with the unknown travelled side by side with the pragmatics of food production. Several other factors likely influenced the shift to agriculture; many of which are know factors in drendochronology adjustments; viz.
Additionally, Critical mass in population density must have played a leading role for three apparent reasons. First, occupiers of preferred environs, would be loath to travel outside home territory; lest they be occupied by squatters. Second, the chances of remarkable births increases in direct proportion to population. Third, x-n population density is required for global transmission of agricultural technology.
Rud, If I may say so, I think perhaps you are missing the big picture here. What rewards would they have received? Would they be welcome wherever they went? Trivially beer making creates CO2. Beer was suggested upthread, so I did some reading this afternoon while watching the Masters. Earliest evidence of beer is from Iran about BCE. That is about 3 millennia after agriculture was firmly established.
Among the additional technologies that had to be developed first was pottery, which only makes sense once permanent settlements are established. Interestingly, both that beer and the early Egyptian beers were apparently made from baked barley bread, not malted barley and may have been more like a gruel than what we know as beer today.
A fermented food more than a beverage. And both Egyptian and Sumerian brewers were almost exclusively women, further strengthening the food supposition. Thanks for the reply and apologies for implying you were missing the big picture. Fermentation and bread making may have been known about before agriculture though. We have evidence of brewing at the time of first writing and pottery.
Perhaps nomads observed drunken boars feasting on rotten fruit and or there was a happy accident earlier. Two considerations on early consumption of fermented liquids. First, fruit gets naturally fermented and chimps in the wild go for the buzz. Likely that hominins were aware of the buzz. Second, the cultivation of grain or fruits for inebriation can be found in the archaeological record of prehistoric China to about to BC.
For me, there are two aspects: one is the connection of what any species does including humans and impacts on the immediate think pollution environment and the wider environment think alleged climate change impacts; the other is motivating behavior self interest and coerced behavior change social engineering. This is a fascinating hypothesis, explaining the near concurrent emergence of neolithic-type agricultural systems in the Near East, South America, Mexico, and New Guinea.
However, to accept it, one would have to reject the critique of core-derived measurements of historical CO2 levels offered by the late Zbigniew Jaworowski. In various locations, Jaworowski argues that the complex processes of ice sheet formation including alteration of snow into firn, evaporation, depth hoar formation, and meltwater seepage , as well as the material relaxation that occurs during core recovery, renders our attempts to estimate historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations based on core sampling highly unreliable.
Snow is metamorphosed to firn. The thermal gradient and gravitational compression of snow cause upward movement of gas. Some air escapes from firn back to the atmosphere, and H2O vapor condenses near the wind-cooled surface, starting formation of the ice crusts. Depth hoar forms as a result of loss of material by sublimation. Meltwater seeps down and collects over impermeable layers.
The firn density gradually increases with depth, and at 0. Between a depth of to 1, m, air bubbles disappear. Liquid water is contained in quasi-infinite network of capillary veins and films between the ice crystals. After relaxation of the load pressure, secondary gas cavities are formed in the cracked ice cores contaminated with the drilling fluid. One such example is the discrepancy between the classic Antarctic Byrd and Vostok ice cores, where an important decrease in the CO2 content in the air bubbles occurred at the same depth of about meters, but at which the ice age differed by about 16, years.
In an approximately 14,year-old part of the Byrd core, a drop in the CO2 concentration of 50 ppmv was observed, but in similarly old ice from the Vostok core, an increase of 60 ppmv was found. The failure to resolve the notorious problem of why about 30 percent of man-made CO2 is missing in the global carbon cycle, based on CO2 ice core measurements, suggests a systematic bias in ice core data.
It is not possible to explain the ice core CO2 record in terms of a system with time-invariant processes perturbed by a combination of fossil fuel carbon release, CO2-enhanced biotic growth, and deforestation. LH, Jaworski is a definite outlier. I read up quite a bit on this in researching what became essay Cause and Effect in ebook Blowing Smoke. Res 26, discusses several possible reasons why Byrd is a clear outlier.
See fig 3 and the accompanying text. Sorry to contradict but this cannot be considered by any means a new hypothesis. The problem appears to be with this:. The hypothesis was first proposed to my knowledge by Rowan Sage in , so it is good that Don Healy does not view the idea as proprietary, since he was beaten to it by 23 years. Sage, Rowan F. Click to access eaee28d This synchrony in agricultural origins indicates that a global factor may have controlled the timing of the transition from foraging to food-producing economies.
Richerson, Peter J. A climate change hypothesis. They elaborated on the idea indicating that CO2 could not be singled as the only responsible factor:. We hypothesize that agriculture was impossible under last-glacial conditions. The quite abrupt final amelioration of the climate was followed immediately by the beginnings of plant-intensive resource-use strategies in some areas, although the turn to plants was much later elsewhere.
Almost all trajectories of subsistence intensification in the Holocene are progressive, and eventually agriculture became the dominant strategy in all but marginal environments. We hypothesize that, in the Holocene, agriculture was, in the long run, compulsory. The CO2 content of the atmosphere was about ppm during the last glacial, compared to about ppm at the beginning of the Holocene Figure3.
Photosynthesis on earth is CO2-limited over this range of variation Cowling and Sykes ; Sage Beerling and Woodward ; see also Beerling et al. This higher stomatal conductance also causes higher transpiration water losses per unit CO2 fixed, exacerbating the aridity characteristic of glacial times. Nor does anyone. The conditions were very hostile to agriculture from all these factors.
During glacial periods land ecosystems have much lower productivity. They present this table that shows that the simultaneity is relative, i. Gupta, Anil K. Gerhart, Laci M. In general, glacial conditions would have been a hostile environment for C3 crops because of low [CO2], as well as drier soils and higher seasonal variation Richerson et al.
As the interglacial period commenced, the onset of rising [CO2] and other climatic changes would have removed an environmental limitation to the development of agriculture Sage, Increasing [CO2] during the interglacial period may have directly enhanced plant productivity and may have reduced the effects of interactive stressors, such that crop production could be sustained year after year within human societies Sage, Anthropologists are beginning to incorporate the importance of CO2 into their ideas on agricultural development.
Dow, Gregory K. Reed, and Nancy Olewiler. Javier, thanks for the additional research. Very helpful. One comment. In matters not so political, I find Wiki a useful quick start to finding themes, authorities, and words for a deeper basic google search, especially in unfamiliar topic areas. QC is by checking the article footnotes. Academic papers, ok. Newpaper articles, not ok. The papers you cite have idea priority. But they are certainly not mainstream archeology. Again, thanks for deepening and broadening the dialog.
It is not unusual for new ideas to come from fringe areas, and the recognized importance of climate in shaping natural history has been gaining increasing acceptance also in human history. In he organized a meeting of experts on the origins of agriculture, and several contributions presented were published in the journal Current Anthropology in He introducted them with: Cohen, Mark Nathan.
I take pride of place as organizer and also as the person providing the most primitive, albeit drastically updated, hypothesis. Some tenets of the model still apply; others do not. But we have to distinguish babies and bathwater. A convincing case has also been made that there are supraregional changes in climate that occurred just prior to the gradual adoption of farming economies that could have set common cross-cultural and cross-regional trends in motion. Richerson, Boyd, and Bettinger have pointed out that two significant climate changes occurred universally at the end of the Pleistocene: 1 an end to very rapid fluctuations in world temperatures and 2 an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
These points are undeniable in the paleoecological record. These arguments were expanded in the conversation; see Bettinger, Richerson, and Boyd, in this issue. Both events would have had the very widespread effect of making stable agricultural economies possible. In short, as they noted, agriculture was impossible during the Pleistocene, mandatory in the Holocene. This may well be the major common occurrence in the various sequence. So in it was a fringe hypothesis, by had gained ample exposure with Richerson et al.
Javier: The references you have provided are excellent and I am both enjoying and learning a great deal from them. However, with so many in the mainstream pushing the idea that exceeding to ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere dooms us, I wished to indicate that since our current needs and life styles require at least to ppm, a target zone of to or is both impossible and unreasonable. Especially so when higher levels are so beneficial to the plant community upon which we all depend.
I agree with everything you say, and I am glad that you enjoy learning about these issues as much as I do. Since neither Rud, you, nor I are anthropologists, we are not supposed to know this much about the origins of agriculture and about the theories that the people studying it propose.
It is actually a very interesting development that people from such different backgrounds are coming to the realization that the raise in CO2 levels at the start of the Holocene might have a lot to do with the current levels of comfort most people in developed societies enjoy. It is described on the Abu Dhabi information website, The trees evolved by condensing what little water is in the air at night.
The water ultimately drips to the ground, and is absorbed by the roots. The trees of the Dew Forest, as it is known, grow to no more than about fifteen feet in height, limited by the distance a water drop can fall before it completely evaporates. Very interesting thought experiment. The concept of foodshed combined with known human mobility limits leads very well to relatively accurate estimations on foodshed size — especially combined with reasonable guesstimates on food crop nutritional value in the ancestral strains.
I believe that there are more modern examples where the foodshed idea also has utility: the MidWest prior to the mechanical reaper. Very interesting article. Extrapolate the linear effect of rising CO2 to support agriculture and culture to contemporary times, where increasing CO2 levels have enabled the planet an ability to support an ever increasing population of us bad humans.
A good deal of food productivity is because of the rise of CO2, but also technology. Contrary to the expectations of many professors and preachers, America began to spare more resources for the rest of nature — first relatively, and then more recently in absolute amounts.
American use of almost everything except information seems to be peaking. This is not because the resources are exhausted, but because consumers have changed consumption, and because producers changed production. These changes in behavior and technology are today liberating the environment.
Agriculture has always been the greatest destroyer of nature, stripping and despoiling it, and reducing acreage left. Then, in about , acreage and yield decoupled in the United States. Since then American farmers have quintupled corn while using the same or even less land Figure 1. Corn matters because its production towers over other crops, totaling more tons than wheat, soy, rice, and potatoes together. Figure 1: Decoupling of US corn production from area farmed. Data source: US Census Bureau , Crucially, rising yields have not required more tons of fertilizer or other inputs.
The inputs to agriculture have plateaued and then fallen — not just cropland but nitrogen, phosphates, potash, and even water Figure 2. This is the story of precision agriculture, in which we use more bits, not more kilowatts or gallons. The average yield of American farmers is nowhere near a ceiling. In , David Hula, a farmer in Virginia, grew a US and probably world record: bushels of corn per acre —— three times the average yield in Iowa.
His tractor cab is instrumented like the office of a high-speed Wall Street trader. Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Email Address:. Bush , C. Reed , W. Metzger , H. Richerson , D. Shulan , J. Koshiver , M. Eric Alden Smith, Robert L. Bettinger, Charles A. Casimir, Andrew L. Rindos, David , Carneiro, Robert L. Peter J. Richerson, Robert Boyd and Robert L.
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